The home-by-home plan using data to support decarbonisation

For the Building Centre’s Retrofit exhibition and seminar series, Director of Innovation & Net Zero, Balazs Csuvar took part in a discussion on the role of data in delivering decarbonisation at scale. In it, he introduced DG Cities’ home-by-home plan, designed to help local authorities use and consolidate data to streamline and better target and prioritise buildings. Here, he gives a little more detail on how the plan works and the benefits of a neighbourhood-level approach.

The net zero journey for housing providers is likely one of the most complex technical, organisational and financial challenges many of them have ever faced. Especially as it comes on top of their existing pressures to provide safe and comfortable homes for all their residents, navigating a time of rapid inflation of costs and shrinking budgets.

What net zero really means for councils also presents its own challenge, especially when it comes to defining what a housing provider can influence. For most, it would include direct and indirect emissions (due to heating, hot water, electricity use) and embodied emissions (carbon emitted through the production of materials, their transport and works associated with them). But there are many stages in this process and influences over which the local authority has no control.

There is, however, something we can agree on – there needs to be a plan. DG Cities has been working closely with a London council to develop a process that provides a housing provider with a detailed, practical, actionable plan that considers not only net zero, but also all the other requirements faced by a provider. We call it a home-by-home plan.

The objective of the home-by-home plan is to define which improvement works have to happen for each home, when, and how much they might cost. This is a simple sounding goal, but something that most providers with stocks of tens of thousands of homes do not currently come close to. We believe that part of the solution lies in the effective application and harnessing of data.

Data

Like most projects, putting this plan together starts with data collection. There is a need to develop a deep understanding of the housing stock to help with the prioritisation and selection of work at a home-by-home level.

We focus on using all the existing data held by housing providers. These datasets usually consist of stock condition data, housing repair data, EPC data, rent data, compliance data, tenant satisfaction data, and any other datasets that a provider collects. A level of data cleaning is then required to correct any anomalies and identify which datasets can be used reliably.

Once the data is cleaned, we work to set a number of key work types that will be required to improve the housing stock. This list includes interventions like window replacement, roof repair, or installing insulation. We then use the datasets that describe the stock to determine which properties need which works by establishing a number of rules. An example might be that a property that has had ‘X’ roof leaks over a period, has a poor EPC rating and has a poor stock condition rating, so gets classified as a property due for urgent roof repair. Meanwhile, one where none or only one of these conditions applies would be scheduled for repair across a longer timescale. Provider priorities can be used to adjust the rules using sensitivity analysis.

These rules allow us to prioritise works across the housing stock using a traffic-light system, highlighting the urgency of specific repair works.

Plan

Once priorities for individual works are set, it becomes possible to determine which projects (a project being defined as one or more works at a single property) need to happen at each home. This can be done by combining certain works that provide efficiencies when completed together, minimising both disruption to residents and mobilisation costs for the housing provider. This step allows us to determine year-by-year projects per home.

Further coordination is involved when determining programmes at the scale of a large building or estate. Some works cannot be completed at a home-by-home level (say external insulation of blocks, lateral main replacements, lift upgrade, etc.). In these instances, works to an individual home need to be aligned with other works required at the block level, to create a coordinated programme for the building or overall estate.

Finally, to ensure full alignment with wider council priorities, it is possible to package a number of work programmes together to provide further community benefits. Larger programmes of work delivered in a single neighbourhood can significantly improve the quality of the built environment, therefore raising living standards not only through home improvement, but through additional works in the area as well. Working with local businesses, stakeholders, contractor social value contributions and the communities themselves can give a boost to an area, as a great side-benefit of retrofit programmes.

All of these have to be aligned to available budgets and resource availability, and balanced against current costs spent on repairs and expected rent revenues from tenants. Where the cost benefit analysis becomes really unequal, a consideration can be made to estate regeneration.

Delivery

The last phase of the project is to manage a data flow during delivery and beyond. It’s an iterative, long-term process and it’s essential to have up-to-date data on the progress of retrofit works. This can help to capture progress towards net zero and other goals, keep the analysis live and overall targets on track. If the analysis is built correctly, any changes that happen across the stock (upgrades or deterioration) can be picked up, and changes to the home-by-home plan can then be made.

Monitoring needs to be put in place to oversee any such changes at the portfolio level, but ongoing monitoring can also be considered at a micro level, as part of the upgrade works. IoT sensors can be installed to collect condition information from homes, either to understand damp and mould risk or to assess energy use from shared heating systems. Real-time data can be used to inform the analysis, and work towards replacing more static data gathering, like patchy and outdated stock condition surveys.

Based on new data, emerging priorities or changing financial situations, the home-by-home plan is highly flexible. It can be reprioritised to help to plan short-term contractor mobilisation, medium-term budget requests and long-term strategic decisions related to housing stock.

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DG Cities is leading the way in supporting housing providers and local authorities through strategies aligned to their specific needs and available datasets. The model described above is inherently flexible and takes into account the realities on the ground, while still providing an approach and methodology that is reliable and can deliver real, practical results. To discuss this approach and our work in more detail, get in touch.

Asset management, neighbourhood decarbonisation and EV charging: Balazs previews his Kia Oval debut

This week, DG Cities’ Director of Innovation & Net Zero, Balazs Csuvar is due to present at the IGPP’s Second National Energy and Sustainability Conference and Exhibition at the Kia Oval in London, where he’ll be focusing on some of the steps DG Cities is taking to help councils simplify, streamline and harness the potential of data to deliver on their net zero commitments. This applies to rolling out EV charging, decarbonisation and more, as he explains…

Strategies for Local Authority Decarbonisation are often grandiose, sprawling documents, outlining tens or hundreds of activities to reach objectives and then sub-objectives. They can be hard to make sense of, let alone implement. Decarbonisation at scale is most certainly a complicated task to deliver – to the extent that many people we have spoken to in the industry think it is close to impossible.

At DG Cities, we have been looking at ways to simplify this great challenge and develop solutions for our local authority clients that can be implemented simply, can provide immediate impacts and solidify gains to build on.

I’m excited to share some of this work with delegates at the IGPP (Institute of Government & Public Policy) conference at the Kia Oval on Wednesday, where I intend to focus on three of our solutions.

1. How we create holistic asset management strategies for housing stock

2. How we simplify and boost EV chargepoint delivery

3. How we use a neighbourhood lens to maximise the impact of even the smallest of projects.

Home-by-home plan

Councils and housing providers need a holistic approach to plan the upcoming capital works programme for their social housing stock. This should be designed to satisfy all council objectives in a timely manner, including decent home standards, compliance requirements and net zero commitments, as well as focusing on minimising disruption to residents and overall costs.

DG Cities has developed an approach to solve this problem. The home-by-home plan is an approach to the analysis and improvement of all properties in an area. It aims to answer the questions around what works should be delivered at which properties, when and how much that would cost. The output is a year-by-year intervention list, determined by the landlord’s priorities and aligned to expected yearly capital spend budgets.

 EV chargepoint licensing

The provision of an on-street electric vehicle (EV) charging network is one of the most impactful steps a local authority can make to encourage transition away from petrol and diesel vehicles. It is crucial infrastructure for anyone without off-street parking and can even be a revenue generating asset for councils.

However, we have identified that the current procurement method utilised by councils is not aligned with the maturity of the market and is not providing the best long-term value for residents. We propose establishing a licensing scheme instead, encouraging market competition, working with the best providers at every point over the coming years and aligning the supply of chargepoints with actual demand. You can read more on the advantages of this in my piece for LGIU.

Neighbourhood-first approach

When delivering components of a decarbonisation strategy, there is a tendency of all stakeholders to focus on solving a part of the bigger problem. A piece of the jigsaw. While this provides some perceived efficiencies at the point of delivery, it does not provide a route to the effective transformation required to meet the broad requirements people face.

This is why DG Cities has been working on establishing a methodology for a neighbourhood-first approach. We envisage all council, or external stakeholder, intervention in communities to be an opportunity to create synergies, build on the trust established by residents, minimise engagement costs and provide a comprehensive service to people. The approach is designed not only to help with reaching net zero, but also to meet broader societal goals around health and wellbeing, social mobility and economic development. 

If you’re at the IGPP conference on Wednesday, keep an eye out for Balazs’s session. To discuss any of these issues or DG Cities’ solutions in more detail, get in touch!

Horseless carriage to self-driving car: the evolution of the driving test

The driving test was invented to improve road safety. Over the years, it has evolved to keep pace with changing vehicles, technologies, needs and potential dangers. Today, DG Cities is working at the forefront of testing innovation and engagement as part of the DeepSafe consortium, looking at the simulation-based training needed to teach autonomous vehicles to handle rare ‘edge case’ scenarios. We thought it would be interesting to delve into the history of the test, explore its current state, and discuss how it is likely to evolve in the future with the advent of self-driving vehicles, as Head of Delivery, Balazs Csuvar explains…

From its humble origins as a simple obstacle course in 1899 in France to the complex evaluations of today's drivers, the driving test has evolved alongside the vehicles it seeks to regulate. However, with the advent of electric and autonomous vehicles, the test itself needs to be completely reevaluated. 

It wasn't until 1935 that the United Kingdom introduced a compulsory driving test, marking a significant milestone in the standardisation of road safety measures. Since then, driving tests worldwide have typically consisted of theoretical exams testing knowledge of road rules, and practical exams evaluating driving skills, with an increasing emphasis on hazard perception and emergency manoeuvres. Different tests have applied to different vehicles, from mopeds and cars to buses and HGVs. Will a test ever be required for e-scooters or electric cycles?

In recent years, the driving test has confronted new challenges as technology has advanced. In 2017, for example, SatNav was introduced to the independent driving section of the test. With the rise of electric vehicles (EVs), drivers have to demonstrate understanding of unique characteristics such as battery range and charging infrastructure. Similarly, as automated systems – advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) - become more ubiquitous in modern vehicles, driving tests may need to include evaluations of a candidate's ability to effectively use these technologies. Assessing human-machine interaction (HMI) will also be crucial, as drivers must navigate increasingly complex interfaces and be prepared to intervene when necessary. 

Evolving to meet regulation

Looking to the future, the driving test must continue to evolve to meet the demands of a rapidly changing automotive landscape. The UK is moving down a path of setting requirements to test or licence self-driving vehicles - this intention is referenced in the recently released Automated Vehicle Bill. The CAVPASS (Connected and automated vehicles: process for assuring safety and security) programme is actively developing these testing and monitoring standards. 

Testing vehicles through a physical driving test might form part of the assessment, as it would provide a good opportunity for humans to assess the comfort and general behaviour of a vehicle, just as drivers do today. This approach does however have a number of limitations. A more likely avenue is to rely on testing in simulation. A test in a simulated environment could eliminate real-world risks associated with testing complex driving scenarios, allow for millions of scenarios to be tested and enable ongoing tests for any future software updates. Testing in simulation is really the only way to truly test a vehicle’s capabilities, although a physical test could still help to validate these.  

DeepSafe

DG Cities is part of the next evolution of the driving test with DeepSafe. This dRISK.ai-led consortium of DG Cities, Imperial College London, Claytex and rFpro will unlock a barrier in the supply chain – together, we are developing the simulation-based capability needed to train and test AVs to handle ‘edge cases’, the rare, unexpected driving scenarios they must be prepared to encounter on the road. DeepSafe will commercialise ‘sensor real’ edge case data – a simulation of what an actual sensor would detect – together with AV training tools, for release in the UK and internationally after the project. The current project builds on existing products consortium members have developed, enhancing the overall capability and accuracy of the world’s first automated vehicle driving test.  

Testing vehicle, system and driver

Technical challenges aside, the road to widespread adoption of self-driving vehicles is fraught with issues beyond the realm of the driving test. Trust, ethical operation and understanding diverse needs are all vital principles. Establishing trust in ADAS, ensuring robust industry regulation, and accommodating the needs of special user groups such as emergency services are all essential steps in this journey. People will need to understand and trust the efforts the sector is making to ensure safety is at the core of this new technology. Moreover, the ethical implications of autonomous driving present a pressing challenge for driving tests of the future - AV systems may be tested on their understanding of ethical considerations and their ability to make informed decisions in critical situations where the vehicle must weigh competing interests, for example, protecting occupants versus pedestrians. These are some of the themes that DeepSafe is addressing through the public engagement aspect of the project. By understanding and finding solutions for these multifaceted challenges, the driving test can play a key role in shaping the future of transportation.

The driving test has come a long way since its inception, adapting to technological advancements and changing transport trends. As we stand on the cusp of an electric and autonomous vehicle revolution, the driving test must continue to evolve to ensure road safety in an increasingly complex and dynamic landscape. 

If you’re interested in finding out more about our work in the field of self-driving tech, you can download our free insights brief here.

Eight years is a long time in smart city world

For our latest piece, Balazs Csuvar, Head of Delivery at DG Cities takes a break from strategising future transport to travel in time. Visiting Barcelona for the Smart City Expo World Congress last week, he takes us back to 2015, to his early experience of the international event, to consider how the sector has evolved – and he’s reassured by the greater integration, collaboration and city-level approaches he finds.

Last week, I was in Barcelona for the Smart City Expo World Congress with a delegation organised by LOTI, the London Office of Technology and Innovation. As the work we do at DG Cities often involves a degree of prediction - looking to the next technology, helping our clients anticipate trends, identify and apply useful solutions - it’s interesting to look back at what was exciting and new then, and how that compares to the current market.

Back in 2015, the year NASA found evidence of flowing water on Mars and the first automated vehicle drove coast to coast across America, the Congress was full of technological possibilities. I was drawn to a range of innovations that had yet to see extensive real-world deployment, such as smart lighting, parking management, IT solutions and car-sharing platforms. The landscape of the smart city was beginning to take shape, but in small pieces.

Fast-forward to 2023 and there’s a clear shift in emphasis. The Smart City Expo World Congress showcased data analysis platforms, success stories from cities and countries, and a growing focus on sustainability and net-zero initiatives. The focus has transitioned from clever but ultimately standalone solutions to greater integration and systems thinking. In 2015, exhibitors were focused on offering specific technologies to address individual challenges: smart lighting and parking solutions were independent of each other, and corporate IT systems operated in silos. The emergence of car-sharing platforms provided convenience, but lacked the connection to other urban initiatives that could have prompted wider adoption.

Exhibitors are now presenting integrated solutions that promote collaboration and interoperability. Data analysis platforms have taken centre stage, demonstrating the growing importance of leveraging information to improve places, as much as leveraging technological advances. Cities and countries are recognising this and sharing successful projects that break away from the trend of isolated technological deployments that I think has held some of the sector back.

Integration matters

It was good to see this shift – no solution exists in a vacuum and the places we live and work are complex and interconnected, from energy and transport networks to broadband fibre. At DG Cities, we have always championed integrated planning, holistic neighbourhood approaches and deep engagement. Success relies on understanding what really happens when an innovation meets real homes and people with diverse needs and perspectives.

This change in emphasis I found at the Expo, this move towards integrated solutions, is a positive development for the sector. It signifies a departure from the piecemeal implementation of technologies, where individual solutions were imposed on cities without a comprehensive strategy. However, as I found with many of the standalone solutions eight years ago which, in most cases, had yet to be applied, the same is true here – the successful implementation and evaluation of holistic projects is yet to follow.

The transition to fully integrated systems that seamlessly communicate with each other requires time and strategic planning. The smart city movement is maturing and AI is rapidly evolving; the next eight years may witness the emergence of groundbreaking examples where systems are not only designed to talk to one another, but are also implemented cohesively. And it’s not only systems that need talk to each other – we need to work collaboratively, across disciplines, between the public and private sector, within our teams, and with the communities we serve. That is one of the benefits of the Expo – the opportunity to discover new ideas, talk to the people behind them, learn from case studies and build human networks.

The smart city has to have social intelligence

This sharing of knowledge is fundamental to the way we operate at DG Cities, where our multidisciplinary team is drawn from a mix of public and private sector backgrounds. It brings together engineers, economists, behavioural scientists, specialists in mobility, transport, planning, connectivity, communications and more. We work in an open, collaborative studio, finding opportunities to share different stages of projects as they evolve; examining what works, what we can improve, how we can achieve wider benefits from an investment or initiative. I think that this way of working is what helps us to develop integrated solutions and guides a more people-centred approach.

What can we expect from the Expo in 2030? Flying taxis and self-propagating street furniture? I hope we’ll see the fruition of some of the ideas that I saw emerging – to have moved significantly further from concept to real-world examples of holistic projects that enhance the quality of places and people’s lives. I’m proud that our work at DG Cities, alongside similar initiatives around the world, is helping to lay the foundations for this smarter, more interconnected and sustainable urban future.

DG Cities data insights: what influences electric vehicle uptake?

We gather some interesting data here at DG Cities. For this short blog, we thought it would be useful to share insights from our research into the factors influencing electric vehicle take-up across the UK. Here, our Head of Delivery, Balazs Csuvar explains some of the numbers and the value of a local authority’s EV strategy in supporting the transition…

While the sector is growing rapidly, overall take up of electric vehicles in the UK is still quite low. In this blog, we wanted to explore where EVs have been picked up, the factors influencing uptake and how quickly they will become the dominant vehicle type across the UK.

Of all registered vehicles in the UK today, ~1.9% are electric or plug-in hybrid. These ~750,000 vehicles are not equally distributed across the country, with the majority of local authorities having less than 1% EVs. By comparison, in Norway, 16.9% of all vehicles are electric (23% including plug-in hybrids). 

Early EV adoption has tended to occur in wealthier areas. Disposable household income is an important factor in defining where electric vehicles have been purchased - data shows a clear correlation between GDHI (gross disposable household income) and EV uptake, as seen in the chart below.

Income, however, is not the only factor. Available EV charging infrastructure also plays a huge role in supporting the transition, with a clear correlation between EV uptake and available charging points per person. The availability of infrastructure helps to build confidence. The data and our experience shows that local authorities can get ahead and help people make the switch to EVs by creating a reliable and accessible charging infrastructure for their residents, visitors and businesses.

This chart below illustrates whether or not councils have an EV strategy. It’s not surprising to see that the majority of local authorities with a large number of charging points do have a strategy, either at a county or local level. As the data shows, developing a strategy to support the transition is possibly the best way to kickstart any council activities in this field.

How can we expect this number to change over time?

The number of vehicles registered in the UK annually is approximately 2 million post-pandemic, and close to or over 3 million pre-pandemic. The number of new registered vehicles was 2.2 million in 2021, so for this analysis we will assume that this volume will remain constant over the coming years. The total number of vehicles in the UK was 39.5 million, so we can also assume this will remain relatively constant over the coming decade, as it has been for the last five years, assuming that older vehicles remain as second hand vehicles, and every year the same number of vehicles come off the road as are added.

In 2021, 5% of all newly registered vehicles were plug-in hybrids and 10% were electric. This number is slowly but steadily increasing. In May 2022, for instance, electric vehicles were 12.4% and plug-ins 5.9%. We can project a relatively steady increase of this ratio before reaching 100% by 2030. There will still be non-EVs registered after 2030 as HGVs, for example, will not yet be electric, but in comparison to the total number of vehicles, we can use this as a good enough approximation.

These projections still mean that we need to wait until 2034/35 for over half of all UK vehicles to be electric. But there is cause for cautious optimism - we shouldn’t let the scale of the challenge deter efforts to develop and implement the strategies we need. This timeline suggests that there is sufficient time and need to develop strategies to support EV infrastructure deployment, consider future rollout of technologies within the sector and the changing role a local authority will play over the coming years. 

If you would like to know more about how we help local authorities, developers and other clients define, implement and evaluate their strategies for EV infrastructure, get in touch!

“Excuse me, do you have a moment to tell us about your strangest driving experience?”

What links the cities of Coventry, York, Wrexham, Leeds, Norwich and Edinburgh?

Over the past few weeks, we have visited them all on our D-Risk tour!

The DG Cities team has been travelling all over the country collecting ‘edge cases’ (and maybe a few souvenirs). Edge cases are weird and unexpected traffic scenarios – the rare situations that challenge us as drivers, but would be impossible for a driverless car to understand.

We went to a range of places to directly capture information on very localised events, then our D-Risk partners turned them into simulations, which can be used to train and test autonomous vehicle (AV) systems. This crowd-sourced data is helping to make AVs safer on the roads in every situation, even the most unusual.  

We’ll be exploring the results and the specifics of these new edge cases soon; lots of them were fascinating, previously uncaptured scenarios, ‘unknown to science’. But I wanted to focus a little here on where the cases come from, the places we’ve been to and the people we met - for full autonomy, AVs will need to fit into all of these worlds. Also, I wanted to extend our gratitude to all the members of the public who took the time to stop and talk to us.

When we were planning our route around the UK, we deliberately set out to visit places that are often left out of AV trials. So far, we have made it to stops in England, Scotland and Wales; we’re hoping to get to Northern Ireland in the next phase. These local insights are vital, because AVs will need to feel as comfortable going through a ford in Wales as up a steep hill in Scotland. Weather, the particular features of a road and navigational errors – often these are linked to very small, distinct geographies, which can make training AVs difficult. For example, driving while blinded by the sun on a coastal road is very different to dealing with horizontal rain by a loch.

We also tried to gather examples from rural areas. While we tended to set our stand up in a city for footfall, many of the people we spoke to lived in the countryside. Wildlife is abundant and unpredictable everywhere: we heard about pheasants, deer, squirrels, partridges and even owls appearing in the edge cases we collected. Narrow country lanes with passing places, farm vehicles and even hunting parties are also definite challenges for driverless technology.

The types of venue differed too. We set up camp at museums, in office lobbies, markets and universities – a wide range, so that we could talk to people from different walks of life, with unique perspectives. These locations, more than anything else, determined whether our audience saw autonomous vehicles as an exciting new advance or viewed them with complete mistrust. Interestingly, we found that often, their doubts were not specifically aimed at AVs, but at new technologies and the idea of government as a whole. 

For driverless cars to be successful, they will need to be widely accepted. To demonstrate their potential advantages to people, we’ll need to focus a lot more on stepping out of our echo chamber and really working hard to bring along those who are not advocates yet. This might be more difficult, but it’s vital that any solution starts by engaging with the people it is intended to benefit.

Have you shared your most unusual experience on the road yet? Tell us about your own edge case here!